● This weekJune 18–21, 2026 · Southampton, NY

U.S. Open

Shinnecock Hills Golf Club · Par 70 · 7,440 yds · William Flynn (1931 redesign) (1891)

“Even par is the line — Flynn's masterpiece in full U.S. Open dress.”

Course rating

77.5

Slope

150

Greens

Fescue / Bentgrass

Water

0 holes

● The quick read30-second briefing

Shinnecock is the closest a links-style design gets on U.S. soil: rolling fescue corridors, exposed wind, firm fast greens, and a setup the USGA pushes to the limit. Winning scores at recent U.S. Opens here run +1 to −4 (Koepka +1 in 2018, Goosen −4 in 2004); par is genuinely competitive. Twelve par 4s including six over 470 yards plus a 252-yard par 3 (hole 2) mean distance is mandatory — but the fescue rough punishes the wild driver as much as the long irons reward the precise one. Build outright cards around proven major-bracket ball-strikers; fade pure scramblers and pure bombers who spray.

● What wins here

1Strokes Gained: Approach (firm greens demand control)
2Driving accuracy (fescue rough = stroke-loss territory)
3Long iron / hybrid play (six par 4s over 470, 252-yd par 3)
4Putting (firm bentgrass / fescue, can run 13+ on Stimp)
5Around-the-green scrambling (USGA setup forces misses)

● Driving distance tiers

Elite drivers310+ yards

Top-40 Tour drivers. Distance is a real asset on the long par 4s (3, 4, 6, 9, 12, 14, 18) and the only weapon that turns 614-yd hole 16 from a layup chore into a true par-5. But Shinnecock's fescue penalizes the missed line as much as any course on Tour — accuracy gates the distance edge.

Rory McIlroyBryson DeChambeauLudvig AbergCameron Young

Avg approach174.0 yds

Per round3,132 yds

−4 to +3 (winning range E to −4)

Find fairways, attack the two par 5s for birdie, and survive the 14/18 closing stretch at par. The bombers who win majors here win because they hit fairways under pressure, not because they bomb past trouble.

Mid-tier drivers295–310 yards

Top 40–100 in driving distance. Roughly +180 approach yards a round vs elite — a real tax on a course where four par 4s already require mid-iron approaches. Mid-iron precision is the single most important separator at this tier; major winners in this group (Koepka 2018, Goosen 2004) won on iron play, not distance.

Matt FitzpatrickTommy FleetwoodRussell HenleyTyrrell Hatton

Avg approach186.0 yds

Per round3,348 yds

E to +5 (legitimate winning tier — Koepka type)

Major-grade iron play and elite putting on firm greens. The mid-tier winners here aren't the longest — they're the ones who keep approaches inside 25 feet from 175-200 yards out, all four days.

Shorter drivers≤ 295 yards

Outside top-100 in driving distance. Six 470+ par 4s plus a 252-yard par 3 means hybrid / long-iron approaches into firm greens for half the round. The margin for error in a U.S. Open setup is brutally thin at this tier — historically only the very best putting and short game keep these guys in contention.

Russell HenleyBrian Harman

Avg approach198.0 yds

Per round3,564 yds

+3 to +10 (top-25 ceiling, top-10 if everything clicks)

World-class scrambling + lights-out putting. Without both, the 4-7-14-16 stretch grinds the round down. Picks here are top-30 / matchups, not outrights.

● Hole-by-hole approach distances

18 holes · 3 driver tiers · marked penalty / opportunity

Hole	Par	Yds	Elite	Mid	Bottom	Notes
#1	4	394	79SW	92SW / PW	104PW	Short par-4 opener — downhill, wedge in. A friendly start, but bogey here is a giveaway. Convert the look or be honest about a U.S. Open par.
#2	3	252	2523i / hybrid	252hybrid	252hybrid / 5w	Hardest par 3 on Tour this week — 252 yds; bogey baseline.
#3	4	501	1866i	1995i	2114i / hybrid	Long par 4 — mid-to-long iron in for everyone. Fairway is essential to hold a firm green; missing here multiplies your par-saving work.
#4	4	476	1617i	1746i	1865i	Another full-iron par 4. Position off the tee — the U.S. Open setup rewards accurate over long, every time on this hole.
#5	5	592	100PW	1139i	1259i / 8i	Front-9 scoring hole — make the 4.
#6	4	495	1806i	1935i	2054i / hybrid	Demanding par 4 — long iron in, exposed to the wind off the bay. A par here is a strong score; the leaders escape this stretch at level par.
#7	3	187	1877i	1877i	1877i	Iconic Redan green — proper line beats raw distance control.
#8	4	440	1259i	1388i	1508i / 7i	Mid-length par 4 — short-to-mid iron in. Fair hole; a 4 here is keeping pace.
#9	4	482	1676i	1806i / 5i	1925i	Uphill long par 4 to close the front. Mid-long iron in — par is gaining ground after the front-nine grind.
#10	4	415	100PW	1139i	1259i / 8i	Short-iron par 4 — wedge / short iron in for the field. A real birdie chance to start the back.
#11	3	157	157PW	157PW	157PW	Shortest par 3 — birdie expected; bogey is a stroke leak.
#12	4	469	1547i	1676i	1796i / 5i	Mid-long par 4 — mid-iron in. Defensive hole; control the tee shot and accept the par.
#13	4	371	56SW	69SW	81SW / PW	Drivable par 4 — eagle in play, birdie expected.
#14	4	520	2054i / hybrid	218hybrid	230hybrid / 5w	Bogey baseline — par gains 0.4+ strokes.
#15	4	409	94SW / PW	1079i	1199i / 8i	Short-iron par 4 — wedge / short iron in for everyone. Bounce-back hole after 14; the leaders convert here.
#16	5	614	1309i / 8i	1458i / 7i	1557i	Only par 5 on the back — Sunday lead-changes get made here.
#17	3	176	1767i / 6i	1767i / 6i	1767i / 6i	Mid par 3 — same shot for all. Wind direction off the bay decides whether 7-iron or 6 is the call. Center pin, take the par, walk to 18.
#18	4	490	1756i	1886i / 5i	2005i / hybrid	Sunday drama hole — bogey decides tournaments.

#1Par 4 · 394y

Elite

Mid

SW / PW

Bottom

104

Short par-4 opener — downhill, wedge in. A friendly start, but bogey here is a giveaway. Convert the look or be honest about a U.S. Open par.

#2Par 3 · 252y

Elite

252

3i / hybrid

Mid

252

hybrid

Bottom

252

hybrid / 5w

Hardest par 3 on Tour this week — 252 yds; bogey baseline. · Monster 252-yard par 3 — driver for some shorter hitters, long iron / hybrid for the rest. The hardest tee shot on the course; bail short, take your par.

#3Par 4 · 501y

Elite

186

Mid

199

Bottom

211

4i / hybrid

Long par 4 — mid-to-long iron in for everyone. Fairway is essential to hold a firm green; missing here multiplies your par-saving work.

#4Par 4 · 476y

Elite

161

Mid

174

Bottom

186

Another full-iron par 4. Position off the tee — the U.S. Open setup rewards accurate over long, every time on this hole.

#5Par 5 · 592y

Elite

100

Mid

113

Bottom

125

9i / 8i

Front-9 scoring hole — make the 4. · Only par 5 on the front — 3-shotter for everyone after a layup, but a wedge in for the third. The field's clearest birdie chance through nine.

#6Par 4 · 495y

Elite

180

Mid

193

Bottom

205

4i / hybrid

Demanding par 4 — long iron in, exposed to the wind off the bay. A par here is a strong score; the leaders escape this stretch at level par.

#7Par 3 · 187y

Elite

187

Mid

187

Bottom

187

Iconic Redan green — proper line beats raw distance control. · The famous Redan — short par 3 with the original Redan green, kicker slope feeds the right pin from a left-edge land spot. Aim for the slope, let it work.

#8Par 4 · 440y

Elite

125

Mid

138

Bottom

150

8i / 7i

Mid-length par 4 — short-to-mid iron in. Fair hole; a 4 here is keeping pace.

#9Par 4 · 482y

Elite

167

Mid

180

6i / 5i

Bottom

192

Uphill long par 4 to close the front. Mid-long iron in — par is gaining ground after the front-nine grind.

#10Par 4 · 415y

Elite

100

Mid

113

Bottom

125

9i / 8i

Short-iron par 4 — wedge / short iron in for the field. A real birdie chance to start the back.

#11Par 3 · 157y

Elite

157

Mid

157

Bottom

157

Shortest par 3 — birdie expected; bogey is a stroke leak. · Short par 3 — wedge in for all. The field's best chance to convert a birdie on a par 3 all week.

#12Par 4 · 469y

Elite

154

Mid

167

Bottom

179

6i / 5i

Mid-long par 4 — mid-iron in. Defensive hole; control the tee shot and accept the par.

#13Par 4 · 371y

Elite

Mid

Bottom

SW / PW

Drivable par 4 — eagle in play, birdie expected. · Short par 4 — drivable for elite drivers off a perfect line, wedge for everyone else. The day's clearest aggressive look at birdie before the closing stretch begins.

#14Par 4 · 520y

Elite

205

4i / hybrid

Mid

218

hybrid

Bottom

230

hybrid / 5w

Bogey baseline — par gains 0.4+ strokes. · Monster 520-yard par 4 — fairway wood / hybrid in for nearly everyone. Plays like a short par 5 with a par-4 result; bogey is the field average.

#15Par 4 · 409y

Elite

SW / PW

Mid

107

Bottom

119

9i / 8i

Short-iron par 4 — wedge / short iron in for everyone. Bounce-back hole after 14; the leaders convert here.

#16Par 5 · 614y

Elite

130

9i / 8i

Mid

145

8i / 7i

Bottom

155

Only par 5 on the back — Sunday lead-changes get made here. · Huge 614-yard par 5 — three-shotter for nearly everyone, true reach-in-two only for the absolute bombers. Either way the field gets a short-iron birdie look on the third. Make the 4.

#17Par 3 · 176y

Elite

176

7i / 6i

Mid

176

7i / 6i

Bottom

176

7i / 6i

Mid par 3 — same shot for all. Wind direction off the bay decides whether 7-iron or 6 is the call. Center pin, take the par, walk to 18.

#18Par 4 · 490y

Elite

175

Mid

188

6i / 5i

Bottom

200

5i / hybrid

Sunday drama hole — bogey decides tournaments. · Historic Shinnecock finisher — blind tee shot up a chute, then mid-long iron uphill to a green tucked against the clubhouse. Champions hit this fairway. Par closes a U.S. Open.

●Penalty holes

Long par 4s — 200+ yard approaches for shorter hitters

Par 3 · 252y

Par 4 · 501y

Par 4 · 495y

Par 4 · 482y

#14

Par 4 · 520y

#18

Par 4 · 490y

●Opportunity holes

Wedge approaches + par 5s — birdie targets across all tiers

Par 4 · 394y

Par 5 · 592y

#10

Par 4 · 415y

#11

Par 3 · 157y

#13

Par 4 · 371y

#15

Par 4 · 409y

#16

Par 5 · 614y

● Betting angles

Fit

Back proven major-grade ball-strikers

U.S. Open Shinnecock setups historically reward elite ball-striking above any single other skill — Koepka (2018), Goosen (2004), Pavin (1995) all won with major-tier iron play, not distance heroics. Weight Strokes Gained: Approach + recent major form heavily. Skip players whose game depends on red numbers and momentum.

Fit

Distance helps, but accuracy gates the edge

Six par 4s over 470 yards means distance is a real asset — but Shinnecock's fescue rough turns spray drivers into bogey machines. The fit is bombers who find fairways (Aberg, Young, Schauffele types); the fade is bombers who don't (some past US Open champs included).

Fade

Fade pure short-game scramblers without distance

Shorter drivers face hybrid / long-iron approaches on at least six holes. No amount of scrambling closes that gap over four rounds against the major-grade field. Be selective even with hot short-hitter form.

Prop

Hole 2 + 14 bogey-or-worse props lean over

252-yard par 3 and 520-yard par 4 are the two holes where even elite drivers are facing long irons / fairway-woods into firm greens. Bogey-or-worse rates on those holes run well above field average — clean angle on per-hole props.

Prop

Par-3 birdie split — under on 2, over on 11

Mirror of the hole-length split: 2 (252y) is bogey baseline, 11 (157y) is a real birdie chance. Per-hole birdie props on the short par 3 are well-priced overs vs base rate; the long ones are dead unders.

General

Watch the forecast — wind decides scoring

Shinnecock sits exposed to the Atlantic / Peconic Bay; wind shifts the winning score dramatically (Koepka +1 in heavy '18 winds; Goosen -4 in soft '04). Hold outright cards until Wednesday morning when the four-day forecast firms up; lean toward elite ball-strikers in any wind > 12 mph forecast.

● Verdict

Shinnecock in full U.S. Open dress is the toughest setup on Tour this year — par is the line, not a milestone. Build outright cards around elite ball-strikers with major-grade approach play and accurate driving; fade pure bombers who spray and pure scramblers without distance. The 2/14/18 stretch decides who's still standing Sunday afternoon. Expect a winning score between even and -4.

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